You might think it’s too early to ponder the possibilities 2025 holds, but it’s already the third week of November, which means it’s the perfect time to don my prediction cap for next year. With enough information, it can be fairly easy to see the evolution of something like computer software and systems.
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Just what will 2025 have in store? These are my predictions for the Linux OS. I decided not to shoot for the moon this time.
Substantial performance increases
Over the past couple of weeks, it was reported that the Linux kernel saw a 4000% performance increase from a single line of code. Granted, that increase was isolated to a synthetic test environment, but it shows the levels of performance the Linux OS is capable of reaching.
Given that, I predict that the Linux kernel is going to receive some substantial performance increases in the coming year. Not only that, but I predict the performance gains will blow away both MacOS and Windows to the point where there’ll be zero debate about which operating system is the most performant (and it won’t even be close).
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If I had to guess, the performance increase will come by way of a single kernel developer and not a big company (such as Intel or AMD). The reason I believe this is because those individual developers know how important performance is to Linux and that such improvements could lead to more people adopting the open-source operating system.
A huge success for System76’s COSMIC desktop
I’ve been anxiously awaiting COSMIC desktop for some time now. For those who don’t know, COSMIC desktop is the operating system being developed by System76, one of the most renowned manufacturers of Linux-based desktops and laptops.
For years, Pop!_OS has been based on the GNOME desktop and System76 saw the benefit of creating their own, in-house distribution. One of the reasons for this is because the company can gain even more performance and reliability from an operating system that can be perfectly tuned for their hardware.
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I firmly believe that COSMIC desktop will quickly become one of the most popular Linux distributions available, and that it’ll happen before the end of 2025.
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You can download an alpha release of COSMIC desktop now. I would recommend running it on a spare computer or as a virtual machine because it’s not ready for general usage.
Finally crushing that 5% market share
Last year, I predicted that Linux would hit a near 10% market share. At the time, I knew that was a big swing, and the likelihood of that happening was fairly slim. But in 2024, the open-source OS market share almost reached 5%, and I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say that it will finally happen this coming year.
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Even better, it will hit that mark and not fall below it again. I firmly believe that 2025 will be the beginning of a serious uptick in Linux usage on the desktop. This could be from the performance gains I’ve predicted or because people are starting to see the benefit of using open-source software. Either way, it’s going to happen, and it will be a good day when it does.
A bigger gaming ecosystem
Another reason why Linux will hit that vaunted 5% market share (I say that with a tinge of snark) is because of Steam. With the performance increases we’re seeing and the wider adoption of Wayland, the Linux gaming ecosystem will see a surge this year. And given the gaming industry is a near 500 billion dollar industry, it should come as no surprise that Linux needs to crack this market to gain more and more acceptance and usage.
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2025 will be a banner year for gaming on Linux. Not only will performance and stability improve, but the number of games available will continue to grow.
AI will not be a factor
Although there are a few niche distributions that tease artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, I don’t think AI will be a factor in the Linux desktop. While AI will continue its rocketship ride into the stratosphere, I cannot see it becoming a big player on the Linux desktop.
The irony here is that most AI companies will continue to depend on Linux and open-source software to help drive their products and innovation. That will not, however, equate to AI getting embedded into the Linux desktop. Why? Most Linux developers aren’t nearly as keen on trends as they are on creating software that serves the user and just works. The addition of AI would complicate things on several levels, and it would simply not be necessary.
